Lohse hoping to pitch Cardinals past Brewers
Baseball Betting Lines
09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Though the St. Louis Cardinals appear to be loaded at the top of their pitching rotation, the back end could use some work.
Kyle Lohse gets a chance to claim his rotation spot this evening, when St. Louis tries to gain more ground in the National League Central with the second contest of a three-game series versus the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park.
The Cardinals' top three starters of Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia have combined to notch 45 wins, but closer Ryan Franklin ranks fourth on the club with six victories. Jake Westbrook, Jeff Suppan and Lohse have just four victories between the three of them.
Lohse, a 15-game winner in 2008 with St. Louis, is just 2-6 with a 7.12 earned run average in 12 starts this year and will pitch tonight on nine days' rest after getting drilled for eight runs on 11 hits over five innings in an Aug. 28 loss in Washington.
Still, manager Tony La Russa won't hesitate in giving the start to Lohse tonight.
"Kyle gets the ball Tuesday because I think there's an anticipation he's got the best chance to get us a [win]," he told St. Louis' website. "And then that spot comes again [next] Sunday. So it's an opportunity for him to justify the confidence."
The 31-year-old righty's first start of the season came in Milwaukee on April 9, and he got a no-decision after yielding four runs over six innings. He is 3-5 with a 5.24 ERA versus the Brewers lifetime.
Lohse will try to keep the Cardinals' momentum going after they picked up their third victory in four games following a five-game slide with Monday's 8-6 triumph over Milwaukee.
The Cardinals snapped a 2-2 tie with six runs in the eighth inning, highlighted by Yadier Molina's second career grand slam. Westbrook gave up two runs over a six-inning start and Mitchell Boggs got the win in relief.
The victory pulled St. Louis to within six games of first-place Cincinnati.
"It was a great win," said La Russa. "[The Brewers] are a tough club to play here because of all that power. We got touched up at the end, but everybody got the outs that they needed."
Corey Hart hit a pair of homers and Rickie Weeks added a solo shot for Milwaukee, which has lost six of its last seven.
Yovani Gallardo threw seven innings for the Brewers and was charged with two runs on four hits. Zach Braddock was tagged with the loss in relief.
"Gallardo threw the ball very well and gave us the innings that we needed," said Milwaukee manager Ken Macha. "It was a big night for Corey with the two home runs. We just didn't get the bullpen help we needed."
The Brewers send Chris Narveson to the hill tonight, and the left-hander has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last seven starts. He has also given up just three runs in his last two outings, including a no-decision in Cincinnati on Wednesday in which he allowed a run on two hits and two walks over 6 1/3 innings.
Narveson is 10-7 with a 5.33 ERA in 32 games (23 starts) this year and 0-1 with a 4.30 ERA lifetime against the Cardinals. That loss came in his last matchup with them, which took place on July 2 in St. Louis, and he was charged with four runs over five innings.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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